Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned
“We can come suddenly in one night… If you Greeks go too far, the price will be high.”
Tensions between the two countries are so high that international affairs analysts have warned that a military conflict in the Aegean Sea or the eastern Mediterranean is a reality. This could lead to a bigger conflict.
Turkey and Greece are both NATO members
But the specter of conflict rooted in the prehistoric Homer epic of the Siege of Troy may be the biggest threat to its stability.
Turkey’s authoritarian leader faces a choice
But many of his are unhappy 20 years after arresting teachers, judges and officials who belonged to the wrong religious, political or racial group.
Gathering nationalist sentiment can help him win.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis also faces an election
He was elected in 2019. But high unemployment and huge public debt remain a challenge. Meanwhile, social unrest is brewing beneath the surface.
Gathering nationalist sentiment can help him win.
“The islands you occupy will not bind us
When the time comes, we will take the necessary action,” Mr Erdogan threatened to an enthusiastic crowd in August. “As we always say: we might suddenly come one night.”
Now the United States and Athens have signed a new defense cooperation agreement.
Washington is increasingly concerned about Mr Erdogan’s actions.
He is increasingly pro-Putin
He ignited the flames of ultranationalism. He exploits extremist Islamic and anti-Western ideologies.
“Tension between Greece and Turkey is not new
But the future cannot be built on the grievances of the past,” said Yasar Bukan, a political scientist at Toronto City University. “Disputes must not hang indefinitely for the sake of a more stable region.”
Their debate is rooted in the depths of history
But also in the recent past.
“We warn Greece to refrain from dreams
Statements and actions that lead to regret, as it did a century ago, and to restore sanity,” Erdogan said, referring to the Greek invasion of western Turkey 100 years ago. was defeated. .
The resulting Treaty of Lausanne defines their current borders.
But after World War II
The bickering over those boundaries began again. In 1974 Turkey invaded Cyprus.
Three times over the next 50 years
Nations came to the brink of war. The most recent dispute occurred in 1996 over the ownership of the uninhabited Aegean rocks in Imea.
The risk is access to oil and gas reserves
And schools of fish. .
The navies of the two NATO allies faced off against each other for months in 2019 after Turkey sent a survey vessel into waters defined by international law as Greek waters.
But Ankara has since expanded
Claiming sovereignty over mainly inhabited Greek islands, including Rhodes, Kos and Lesbos. This led to renewed clashes between the air forces and navies of the two countries.
“The illegal and unjust islands of Greece are our right,” declared Devlet Bahceli
A political ally of Mr Erdogan. “The Greeks shouldn’t test our patience. If they want to be driven out to sea again, let them tell us and we’ll throw them all down, God bless.”
“Since Turkey will not give up its rights in the Aegean Sea
It will also not hesitate to exercise its rights under international treaties on the demilitarization of islands,” Mr Erdogan tweeted in Greek and English Say.
Like the United States
Turkey is not a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Greece
Whose territorial rights are backed by the United States and the European Union, is ..
The Athenian government replied
“Greek is known as the language of reason, freedom and justice. The strategy chosen by Turkey does not fall into any of these categories.”
According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
“Each State has the right to limit the breadth of its territorial sea to a limit not exceeding 12 nautical miles (22 km) from baselines determined in accordance with this Convention”.
Since most of the islands in the Aegean Sea are ruled by Greece
Athens directly controls 72% of the Aegean Sea. Turkey does not accept the 22 km limit.
Until recently
Both sides claimed to be only 6 nautical miles (11 kilometers) from their islands as a compromise. But Turkey categorically rejects the concept of an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) that applies to islands.
Mr Erdogan
However, focused on the Greek military presence in the Aegean Islands. He insists that the treaty between the two countries does not allow them to exist.
“We call on Greece to stop arming the islands with demilitarized status and act in accordance with international agreements,” Erdogan said during military exercises off Turkey’s Aegean coast.
“I’m not joking
I’m serious. This country is determined.”
Athens argues that the islands have had a defensive garrison for decades because they are easily touched by a large Turkish invading fleet.
Athens has traditionally been Moscow’s best friend
They have strong Orthodox Christian and historical ties. But all of that collapsed in 2018, when President Putin tried to sabotage North Macedonia’s attempt to join NATO by bribing Greek officials.
In 2017
Greece blocked an EU attempt to condemn China’s human rights record at the United Nations. It is widely believed to be the down payment on a massive investment to lift the country out of the financial crisis.
“Like Turkey
Greece stands out among NATO members because of its strong anti-American sentiment — both among the political elite and the general public,” said Bradley Bowman, director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy (FDD), and Ai Bauman. Kan Ersenmir observes.
But Athens has begun to turn its allegiance to the West.
“Erdogan’s growing belligerence and his rejection of the West and its values are one of the reasons for Athens’ clear turn to the US, NATO and the EU.”
Greece
In particular, has been very actively involved in counter-Russian efforts following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The new military agreement allows the US military to build more bases on its soil.
“This strengthens NATO’s southeastern flank and provides an alternative means of transporting troops to NATO allies Bulgaria and Romania,” the FDD analyst explained.
“These terrestrial communication lines complement existing maritime links through the Bosphorus and could replace it in a crisis if Turkey or Russia deny US access to the Black Sea.
The latest escalation in tensions began after Turkey claimed one of its fighter jets scouting Greek airspace around Crete was captured by a radar-equipped anti-aircraft missile system.
“Look at history,” Mr Erdogan warned in September
“If you continue to cross the border, you will have to pay a high price. Don’t forget Izmir.” In 1922, Greek troops were defeated in coastal cities on the Turkish mainland.
Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis described the crisis as a clash between democracy and autocracy.
“Populism is a challenge everywhere,” Mitsotakis told the Council on Foreign Relations.
“It’s still a challenge
In Europe, we have right-wing populism. We have left-wing populations. Of course, in difficult times, it’s easy for those who have nothing to promise everything to voters without really explaining how they’re going to get there.”
He warned that he did not yet see a way to restore relations with Ankara.
“A big part of it is domestic politics
I think Turkey needs to understand that if it continues on this path, it will be alienated not only from Greece, but also from Europe, the United States. If Turkey decides to move to other spheres of influence geopolitically, so be it.”
Mr. Mitsotakis relies on international law and the arbitrator’s decision.